his chances are exactly zero, I'll posit that 1-in-5 will be 1-in-50 by early September, to 0-in-0 by election day.
We are about to be treated to the utter farce of his VP pick, certain to blow up after eight weeks of stupid controversy, and a GOP convention that will rival the worst reality shows for inane bathos, non-sequitur, and exhibitions of barely-concealed rage. This is assured.
What mainstream commentators can't quite bring themselves to grasp is that this is the effective end of the Republican Party, which has already for all intents and purposes vanished. I've read entirely serious articles that cast ahead to GOP gains in the next mid-terms, that in fact it is sitting pretty to collect all the chips midway through the next Clinton presidency.
I am here to say that this is centrist, thumbsucking hogwash. We have already witnessed the real time immolation of England's ruling cadres; with a pigheadedness from Labor's Jeremy Corbyn that makes Bernie look like Adlai Stevenson, and a breathtaking display of selfish and brain dead ambition among the chief players of the Conservative Party. I expect the centuries-old armature of the parliamentary system will preserve a measure of continuity, but it is impossible to imagine either party existing as constituted on January 1 this year.
The U.S. system offers no such grounding in tradition, or diversity of opinion under a single party banner. Not anymore anyway, and the GOP, weakened and fractious, has been easily hijacked (in fact, more like picked-up) by a scoundrel absolutely content to sacrifice it utterly to his own perverted ambitions. To think that it will bounce back from what looks to be a history-making internal disaster, and a generation-defining Progressive ascendency made possible by the Kenyan Usurper, and somehow remain a national party, is a willfully naive reading of our very great times.